Author Topic: King is dead, long live the new king  (Read 5494 times)

Jari

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King is dead, long live the new king
« on: 2007-08-29 18:35:25 »
*puts on a magic games market analyst hat*

Ladies and gentlemen, Sony just lost this generation.

http://www.metacritic.com/games/platforms/ps3/heavenlysword
http://www.metacritic.com/games/platforms/ps3/warhawk
http://www.metacritic.com/games/platforms/ps3/lair

These were supposed to be AAA-titles, possible killer applications. Now they are struggling to be 'OK' games, one of them even failing that. As if that wasn't enough, Bioshock is turning out to be a surprise hit for 360, Mass Effect should be a great game (then again, Lair was supposed to be great game, too...) and Halo 3 will sell regardless of what kind of a game it is.

Final Fantasy titles and GT5 will be released God-knows-when and MGS4 is slated for Q1 of 2008... if you believe that. So, Sony would have to sell PS3 as a Blu-Ray player (again!) for the next few months, unless you believe that timed exclusives of Haze and UT3 will move PS3s... I sure don't. I also doubt Killzone 2's ability to move systems, but more importantly I doubt that it will be out anytime soon.

Even VGChartz - which is as biased towards Sony as it's possible for a chart tracking website to be - is showing that 360 is eating away the boost PS3 got from the price cut. Japan being the only place where PS3 clearly dominates (well, is clearly on the second place, of course, let's not forget Wii). In US 360 has already exceeded weekly PS3 sales and in 'other' regions they are pretty close.

The total gap currently being at least - this is VGChartz after all - more than 6 million, or roughly 150% of the PS3s sold thus far. I don't think that PS3 can catch 360, if the only thing they can offer is "But it plays Blu-Ray movies!", most of the big titles this fall / holiday season are going to be multiplatform releases, after all.

I hereby declare as my official magical market analysis that PS3 is doomed to remain in the last place for the rest of this generation, and as an indirect result from the failure of Goddess of Wa... Heavenly Sword, Warhawk and Lair, MGS4 will become a mere timed exclusive. It takes deep pockets to argue with an install base that is two and half times as large as the competitors'.

I intentionally neglected to mention Wii, as it doesn't take much of an analysis to see where that is going. Although... if I owned a Wii, I'd be somewhat alarmed by the lack of decent games.

squeeble

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Re: King is dead, long live the new king
« Reply #1 on: 2007-08-29 22:50:52 »
So the games got bad scores...
Got any sales charts? Generic games like these aren't marketed to the hardcore, there marketed towards casual or noob gamers who get a PS3 then when a company says this will be the next big thing they go ZOMG HEAVENLY SWORD!!!11oneone.

As for bioshock that game is awesome and I doubt it was a surprise hit considering it has been anticipated for a very long time, and I do believe UT3 will a console pusher simply for the amount of UT3 players out there, and the ability to play against PC counterparts in online multiplayer.

Thing is what will happen when the massive titles finally hit the shelves like FF/MGS/GT5, will people finally wake up and start buying the console, or will everybody be over it by the time these games roll around. I for one am hoping that sony and it's developers/publishers can pull there act together and save what is a high quality console.

Jari

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Re: King is dead, long live the new king
« Reply #2 on: 2007-08-29 23:45:02 »
So the games got bad scores...
Got any sales charts? Generic games like these aren't marketed to the hardcore, there marketed towards casual or noob gamers who get a PS3 then when a company says this will be the next big thing they go ZOMG HEAVENLY SWORD!!!11oneone.

No. I think that Warhawk is the only one that is actually out, in the sense that you can actually buy it.


As for bioshock that game is awesome and I doubt it was a surprise hit considering it has been anticipated for a very long time, and I do believe UT3 will a console pusher simply for the amount of UT3 players out there, and the ability to play against PC counterparts in online multiplayer.

Well, considering that Irrational has never had a real blockbuster, although they certainly would have deserved one, it is somewhat of a surprise. Not to mention that they are probably best known for System Shock 2 (to which Bioshock is an obvious successor), which is eight years old by now, so several of the younger gamers have never played it - meaning that it has been anticipated for a long time, but not by that many people. And of course, Ken Levine did mention that they were surprised by the popularity.

Hmmm... So, you think that either people who are used to playing FPS' on PC will buy UT3 for PS3, or that people who have played Unreal Tournament or either of the Unreal Championships on consoles will buy it?

I really don't think that PC gamers are particularly eager to switch from mouse and keyboard to pad, and most of the former console players are (former) Xbox owners - both Championships being Xbox only, only the UT was multiplatform - so I speculate that many of them already have 360 and one timed exclusive is not enough to make them buy a pretty expensive console.

Heck, for that matter I believe that out of the games I mentioned only FF titles and Halo 3 are real system movers. Even MGS4 is too niche to make a large impact.

I am curious to see what effect the ability to play against PC gamers will have. Because unless Epic has implemented some serious handicap system, it will be a rather one sided massacre. And if it is, I don't think that it will be very popular for very long.


Thing is what will happen when the massive titles finally hit the shelves like FF/MGS/GT5, will people finally wake up and start buying the console, or will everybody be over it by the time these games roll around. I for one am hoping that sony and it's developers/publishers can pull there act together and save what is a high quality console.

I am not. For all the bullshit and lies Fony told, they deserve to lose this generation. Maybe they'll learn some humility from it. Krazy Ken was already sacked, which is a start...

squeeble

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Re: King is dead, long live the new king
« Reply #3 on: 2007-08-30 01:21:23 »
Quote
Hmmm... So, you think that either people who are used to playing FPS' on PC will buy UT3 for PS3, or that people who have played Unreal Tournament or either of the Unreal Championships on consoles will buy it?
God no that's not what I meant. Put simply the fan base for UT is quite large and I believe the game will sell well, considering it will be a PS3 exclusive for a certain amount of time, that should be enough for some gamers to go out and buy the console, because allot of people have been waiting for a price drop (which has happened albeit small) a few decent games out, some of which are exclusives, not that that bothers me much, theres also ratchet on the way which if like the rest of them should be a smash hit.

Also yes I do believe sony deserved to lose the generation but I just don't want them to, because what microsoft does for the industry just isn't in the best interest of gamers. I.E buying out rockstar for GTA 4 and NAMCO for the new Ace combat (<WHICH IS UTTER BS!), thus forcing gamers to buy another console in which case they may have bought the other console thinking it might keep the same exclusives.
Another thing I dislike about the 360 is the whole red ring of death issue, and that they where all dying right after the warranty expired, and in light of the wiki scanner it seems microsoft edited wiki about they costs and numbers this problem caused.

As for the whole Bioshock thing you make a good point, and I reckon they deserved their hit at long last, even if their anti piracy protection is bs lol.

I'm not so much as a sony lover as I am a microsoft hater, and I do plan to get a PS3 but Crysis is coming out and I need money for a new comp XD, rest assured I will be getting one though.

And in terms of quality of build the PS3 is way ahead of the 360, as the PS3 is like a sleek candy coated sports car, and the 360 is more of a datsun 120y  :-D.

P.S keyboard+mouse owns gamepads, so yeah it will be interesting to see how UT3 goes with that lol.

Kashmir

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Re: King is dead, long live the new king
« Reply #4 on: 2007-08-30 05:19:55 »
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As for the whole Bioshock thing you make a good point, and I reckon they deserved their hit at long last, even if their anti piracy protection is bs lol.
Its not piracy they are trying to stop (I managed to make a pirate my own copy just fine). Its reselling on ebay that they are trying to stop, hence the limited activations... originally it was only two installations till they caved in to pressure & made it five.

squeeble

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Re: King is dead, long live the new king
« Reply #5 on: 2007-08-30 06:16:26 »
Oh I see^
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Its not piracy they are trying to stop (I managed to make a pirate my own copy just fine).
So did you copy make a crack for it then try it on another computer, or did you just copy your disc and try it on "your" computer?

Kashmir

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Re: King is dead, long live the new king
« Reply #6 on: 2007-08-30 08:38:42 »
Works on 2 of my pc's, worked fine in every way... I copied it by accident, i meant to copy a different cd and accidentally selected to copy from the wrong drive :P

No need for a crack... people who copy a cd and then have to crack it don't know what their doing IMO. But thats enough of that talk, piracy talk is forbidden on these forums :P

Borde

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Re: King is dead, long live the new king
« Reply #7 on: 2007-08-30 11:18:39 »
Jari, as happy as it would make me seeing Sony bit the dust for all their lies and offenses (and let's not forget because I hate the PS2 with passion), I think it's still too early to claim the PS3 is dead. I'm more a Sony hater than anything else, but I can't deny there is a LOT of gamers out there that associate the term console exclusivly with the brand Play Station (just like it used to happen with Nintendo in the 80s). I'd say that things keep looking worse for Sony, but they aren't yet dead. The 3 red lights can be a real problem for microsoft but then again, let's not forget that the PS2 had an irritating tendency to stop working and it wasn't a problem for it's massive success. And about microsoft buying exclusivities... well, so did Sony (and so did Nintendo when they could).
By the way, I thought that the PS3 supported USB mouse and keyboard. I could be wrong though.
As for Bioshock, I'm really willing to play that game. Unfortunately, I'm an X800XT owner which means I have no Pixel Shaders 3 support. It's really frustrating that 2k games hasn't thought about adding support for Pixel Shader 2 cards when some of them can oviously move this game pretty smoothly. And I'm not the only one. There is a lot of people that bought the game thinking they met the minium specs and found just a pile of shit when they ran it. I've tried the unofficial patches, but they ar still far from perfect. At least I have tried tha demo first.

Kashmir

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Re: King is dead, long live the new king
« Reply #8 on: 2007-08-30 16:24:01 »
My video card didnt have 2.0 support either, so i got another one.

ChaosControl

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Re: King is dead, long live the new king
« Reply #9 on: 2007-08-30 21:31:52 »
Jari, as happy as it would make me seeing Sony bit the dust for all their lies and offenses (and let's not forget because I hate the PS2 with passion), I think it's still too early to claim the PS3 is dead. I'm more a Sony hater than anything else, but I can't deny there is a LOT of gamers out there that associate the term console exclusivly with the brand Play Station (just like it used to happen with Nintendo in the 80s).
Yeah, my g/f calls my gamecube a playstation ffs.
Quote
I'd say that things keep looking worse for Sony, but they aren't yet dead. The 3 red lights can be a real problem for microsoft but then again, let's not forget that the PS2 had an irritating tendency to stop working and it wasn't a problem for it's massive success. And about microsoft buying exclusivities... well, so did Sony (and so did Nintendo when they could).
By the way, I thought that the PS3 supported USB mouse and keyboard. I could be wrong though.
As for Bioshock, I'm really willing to play that game. Unfortunately, I'm an X800XT owner which means I have no Pixel Shaders 3 support. It's really frustrating that 2k games hasn't thought about adding support for Pixel Shader 2 cards when some of them can oviously move this game pretty smoothly. And I'm not the only one. There is a lot of people that bought the game thinking they met the minium specs and found just a pile of sh*t when they ran it. I've tried the unofficial patches, but they ar still far from perfect. At least I have tried tha demo first.

I love my 7600GT, not much usefull things to post further.
« Last Edit: 2007-09-01 13:58:48 by Alhexx »

Borde

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Re: King is dead, long live the new king
« Reply #10 on: 2007-08-30 22:24:32 »
Yes, I've been tempted to buy a 7600GT (which seems to have exactly the same processing power as my X800XT) lately, but I just don't feel like changing my video card right now. Not with DX10 calling to the door. And current mid range DX10 cards are so pathetic... Come on, the 8600GT has barely the same speed as the 7600GT. It may be just enough for DX9 games, but I bet DX10 will be extremly sluggish with that card. I supose I'll have to wait for the next generation.

squeeble

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Re: King is dead, long live the new king
« Reply #11 on: 2007-08-30 23:14:02 »
I have a 8500GT generic in my bros comp and it can run Company of heroes on medium-high, it can run Far Cry witth the HDR patch at max settings, runs Quake 4 almost maxed I think, and I'm looking forward to testing Bioshock on it.

Jari

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Re: King is dead, long live the new king
« Reply #12 on: 2007-08-31 18:04:22 »
God no that's not what I meant. Put simply the fan base for UT is quite large and I believe the game will sell well, considering it will be a PS3 exclusive for a certain amount of time, that should be enough for some gamers to go out and buy the console, because allot of people have been waiting for a price drop (which has happened albeit small) a few decent games out, some of which are exclusives, not that that bothers me much, theres also ratchet on the way which if like the rest of them should be a smash hit.

The price drop seems to be de-happening as we speak; Sony has run out of 60GB PS3s, as has at least one Internet retailer. If they are smart at least somewhat intelligent they'll drop the 80GB's price when 60GB runs out, but who knows, this is Sony after all - masters of foot in mouth. Of course, price drop or no price drop, 80GB will come with the added bonus of inferior BC in all regions.


Also yes I do believe sony deserved to lose the generation but I just don't want them to, because what microsoft does for the industry just isn't in the best interest of gamers. I.E buying out rockstar for GTA 4 and NAMCO for the new Ace combat (<WHICH IS UTTER BS!), thus forcing gamers to buy another console in which case they may have bought the other console thinking it might keep the same exclusives.

Yes, because Sony doesn't buy exclusices, like Jack Tretton said. :-D Mysteriously it seems that today Haze went from timed exclusive to exclusive for PS3 and the devs refuse to comment. Probably Sony gave them a pony. Or a hug. Surely not money.

Just like Sony funds Jaffe's new dev house, but as I was educated on Kotaku; giving money in return for exclusives is not the same thing as buying exclusives. Well... obviously. :P

Let's play make believe: pretend that MGS4 stays exclusive for PS3 and Sony does not compensate Konami in any way (they probably just hate the filthy gaijin console, or something). No MGS4 for 360 owners then. And let's pretend that Ace Combat exclusivity was bought. So, no Ace Combat for PS3 owners.

Now, explain to me why 360 owners are happier in this case. They should be, shouldn't they? Exclusive certainly wasn't bought away from them...


And in terms of quality of build the PS3 is way ahead of the 360, as the PS3 is like a sleek candy coated sports car, and the 360 is more of a datsun 120y  :-D.

Surely you know that Ferrari uses parts from cheap ass Fiat models and Jaguars are made of Ford parts these days? :P I was rather amused to find out that my FSO Polonez - one of the crappiest cars ever made - had the cabin air duct-thingies exactly like the ones in Testarossa (FSO being more or less license made Fiat probably gave them a license for the thingies as well). Plus it was red, too! And rear wheel driven! Almost like a driving a Ferrari! :-D

More seriously though, your average Japanese family car works long after the sports car has broken down, one of them is built for reliability and other is not. Not a very good analogy, that is. :P


By the way, I thought that the PS3 supported USB mouse and keyboard. I could be wrong though.

Ah! It does! Good point. How many of the UT3 owners will get a keyboard and a mouse is a somewhat different matter, though. Then again, it does have a browser too...

squeeble

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Re: King is dead, long live the new king
« Reply #13 on: 2007-09-02 06:57:25 »
Wow I'm gone for the weekend and the fanboys haven't started flaming yet XD...