xLostWingx
Insane poster
Posts: 297
FFVII Revisited
The Great Debate: Transportation Safety
« Reply #40 on: Yesterday at 22:54:14 »QuoteModifyRemoveI was interested in determining whether it is safer to travel by plane or car. The answer should present itself if we examine data from multiple sources. I have two sources, 1 for cars, and 1 for planes. They are not infallible, but they appear to be reliable enough for our purposes. Other sources are encouraged.
Plane Safety:
http://www.flightglobal.com/articles/2010/01/11/336920/global-airline-accident-review-of-2009.htmlCar Safety:
http://www.who.int/features/2004/road_safety/en/In terms of Injuries and Deaths - Cars 1.2 Million deaths per year; 50 Million injuries per year.
Planes 806 Deaths per year (avg.); 31 Fatal Accidents per year.
Note that up to 30% of fatal car accidents involve a drunk driver (in the USA). Also, many car accidents are collisions between vehicles and human beings or cyclists. Plane crashes usually involve catastrophic mechanical failure, or a drastic pilot error - some automobile fatalities are a result of mechanical failure (but consider how often planes are maintanenced verus how many cars are poorly maintained).
And this is for planes:
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•1990-94: 1.32 serious accidents per million departures. •1995-99: 1.06. •2000-04: 0.58. •2005-09: 0.55.By serious, I believe they mean involving a fatality.
It is clear to me that cars are much more dangerous than planes, but nearly all automobile fatalities are preventable while the trip is taking place, but it has been mentioned that plane accidents usually occur on takeoff or landing.
If I am driving a car, or in an area where cars are being driven, the introduction of a loud noise, an interesting scene, a hole in the road, or excessive speeds (and 1000 other factors) can create an accident in an instant. The plane travels through air and is not subject to most of these factors. However, outside forces can act on planes (bird strikes) and mechanical failure can happen in automobiles (Toyota Brake Failures).
« Last Edit: Yesterday at 23:22:23 by xLostWingx » Report to moderator 184.56.172.198
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DLPB
Freak
Posts: 968
Re: Trolling Thread: For all your trolling needs
« Reply #41 on: Yesterday at 23:16:37 »QuoteThat does not answer the question properly at all, because you have not used an average based on how many total journey's there are (and by that stat, cars come out 3X worse).
There are far far more car journeys than plane journeys, so obviously a sum total will show planes having less deaths. (I also didn't realise it was this thread because of the post title, but since this is actually debating I will leave the post here).
You cannot use sum totals in this debate, as it is the most unfair stat going.« Last Edit: Yesterday at 23:18:33 by DLPB » Report to moderator Logged
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xLostWingx
Insane poster
Posts: 297
FFVII Revisited
The Great Debate: Transportation Safety
« Reply #42 on: Yesterday at 23:44:09 »QuoteModifyRemoveWell here is some data
http://www-fars.nhtsa.dot.gov/Main/index.aspxBy using the information here, I've calculated that there is 1 death per 292,865,490,000 vehicle miles traveled (in the USA) or a .000000000293% chance of dying for every mile you drive. By injuries, it would be 52 times that number chance of sustaining an injury by driving. Insignificant indeed. But then I found this.
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Fatality rate per billion passenger miles traveled Car (most dangerous) 7.2 Airplane 2.3 Bus 2.0 Train (safest) 0.5
http://airfare.michaelbluejay.com/modes.html#sourcesFrom here
http://airfare.michaelbluejay.com/modes.html With a list of sources.
I didn't check the math on each source, but its something to look at. I would have to say that fatalities per passenger mile is a good method of determining safety. Journey numbers is too ambiguous. Planes cover those miles faster, so in terms of "time spent in vehicle" planes are even more dangerous than simply by passenger mile. Deaths per passenger hour of travel might be a better method.
« Last Edit: Yesterday at 23:54:06 by xLostWingx »
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DLPB
Freak
Posts: 971
Re: Trolling Thread: For all your trolling needs
« Reply #54 on: Today at 01:06:27 »QuoteFatality rate per billion passenger miles traveled
Car (most dangerous)
7.2
Airplane
2.3
Bus
2.0
Train (safest)
0.5
Let's say that those are correct... they still show that the claim "Planes are the safest form of transport" is dubious to say the least, which is my main problem with the aviation authority and people who claim planes as safest.
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DLPB
Freak
Posts: 971
Re: Trolling Thread: For all your trolling needs
« Reply #57 on: Today at 01:29:19 »QuoteNot long ago, you were vehemently arguing that planes were more dangerous than cars.
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Several times I reinforced the statement that "at best" planes are "no more safe" and I said "They definitely are not the safest [overall]"
You should keep up. I retracted the implication that "cars are definitely safer", as that was never really my problem. My problem is that the aviation authority parrots the "safest" and so do people brainwashed into believing it. There is nothing left to say on this. I have made it clear.
Also, depending on which set of official stats you use (3 are compiled and I sent them), you get vastly different outcomes. I personally believe death by journey number is fairer and so do aviation insurers.
You can try to prolong this if you wish, but there is nothing left to prolong, only your trolling. Have fun!« Last Edit: Today at 01:32:56 by DLPB »
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The purpose of my investigation was to determine if planes were safer than Cars. Journey number may be how insurers decide to do it, and I admit it is easier to just use that, but what safe and what isn't safe should surely be measured by how long you can do that thing before you die. If I get into a gun fight, there is a yy% I will die after x time; if I spend 100,000 hours flying in planes, I have a 10% chance of dying (not the real stats, but to illustate my point). I could spend my life making 'journeys' to and from each of the block, or I could spend my life making journeys to and from Beijing to New York. In one instance I'll have made a million journeys, in the other I'll only have made ten thousand journeys.
I'm not arguing that cars are safer or that planes are safer. I am looking at the numbers, determining what 'safety' is (I would include injuries, not just deaths), and deciding whether I am safer making trips in the car or in a plane. By passenger miles, cars are more about 3x more dangerous than planes. Planes travel more than 3x the speed of cars, so time spent traveling in cars is actually less dangerous than time spent traveling in planes. But then add injuries into the equation, and cars once again, become more dangerous. Basically...you are more likely to die in a plane and more likely to be injured in a car - which is something we could have determined without looking at any data at all.
